Paper deal 0002 — PASS
Target: Saber AMM (SBR) — Solana DEX for pegged assets (USDC/USDT, SOL/mSOL, …)
Source: DefiLlama / Saber
Memo date: 2026-09-19
Cell type: protocol (hybrid with the SBR token)
Outcome: PASS. The ask is counterfactual ($25k for upgrade authority). The cap on transformed earnings is ~$7k. Buying the float at $217k mcap is a trade, not a cell.
Exercise. No LOI, no listing. On-chain facts are locked. The handover price is labeled counterfactual.
1. Public facts (locked)
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TVL | $5.53m | Users’ LP. Not ours, does not go into the treasury. |
| Fees 30d | $513 | |
| Revenue 30d | $266 | Half of fees, retained by the protocol. |
| Holders revenue 30d | $0 | SBR takes no cash. |
| Volume 30d | $7.05m | Still alive, small. |
| Cumulative volume | $6.56b | Historical PMF, not a pitch. |
SBR mcap |
$216,912 | $0.000082 vs ATH $0.96 |
| Ask | $25k | Counterfactual: upgrade-authority handover. Not a listing. |
| AI disruption | low | AMM for pegged assets. AI does not eat USDC/USDT swap. |
Run-rate revenue ≈ $266 × 12 = $3.2k/year. We underwrite this, not the $6.56b cumulative volume.
2. Screen (constitution §3)
| Filter | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Proven PMF | Pass. Cumulative volume and residual TVL. |
| Room to operate | Pass. Holders revenue $0, fee take, UX, Jupiter routing. |
| Predictable earnings | Low pass. On-chain fees, small, persistent. |
| AI risk after integration | Pass. Category is not an “AI wrapper.” |
| Not pre-PMF | Pass. |
No hard fail. We go to price. (Different from 0001, where AI closed the screen.)
Extra constraints, locked:
- TVL $5.53m is user capital. Constitution / RAILS: we do not LP dry powder into the target, we do not “socialize” a hole.
- Buying
SBRat mcap for “control” without upgrade authority is a position, not a cell (PROTOCOL.md).
3. Transformed earnings
90 days, if the keys arrived (they do not):
- Upgrade authority on Squads.
- Fee switch: holders revenue today $0 → an honest on-chain share, not Harvest.
- Clean client/IDL, Jupiter listing if missing.
- Steward = agent. Low opex.
- Dry powder does not provide Saber liquidity (conflict + IL).
| P | Year-1 revenue | Cost | Earnings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 0.35 | $1.0k (volume dies) | $0.6k | $0.4k |
| Base | 0.50 | $3.2k (run-rate) | $1.0k | $2.2k |
| Up | 0.15 | $8.0k (fee+UX) | $1.5k | $6.5k |
Expected ≈ 0.35*0.4 + 0.5*2.2 + 0.15*6.5 = $2,215.
Haircut 20%: uncertain keys, old program, TVL that can leave the day of the announcement.
4. Price
Hurdle 4×, hold forever, no leverage.
- 4 × $2,215 = $8,860
- after 20% haircut → cap $7,088
Counterfactual ask $25k > cap. Mcap $217k ≫ cap.
No offer. One offer, little movement: we do not walk up toward $25k and we do not buy SBR “because it is cheap vs ATH.” ATH is a fossil.
If a founder arrived with the keys under cap (~$7k), the memo reopens. Today no.
Governance: even the counterfactual ask is ≥ $25k → it would be Realms. Irrelevant: PASS before the vote.
5. Solana rails (why this deal exists)
Saber is a Solana financial instrument (pegged AMM). For us it is a target, not a venue. Treasury venues stay: USDC, Kamino/Save (cash), Jupiter (spot/buyback). Putting dry powder into Saber pools while we underwrite it is IL + conflict. RAILS.md.
6. Curriculum
- A neglected protocol with real PMF and real P&L can pass the screen and fail the price. That is the healthy case.
- Token mcap ≠ protocol price. Without upgrade authority,
$SBRis a chart. - Holders revenue $0 is room to operate, not an invitation to gouge.