Paper deal 0003 — OFFER
Target: Bulk File Downloader — Chrome extension
Source: Flippa #12085118
Memo date: 2026-09-19
Cell type: web2
Outcome: OFFER $12,000 (Squads, under threshold). Counterfactual ask: listing ended, live ask unknown.
Exercise. No LOI. Public listing facts are locked. The relist price is labeled counterfactual.
1. Public facts (locked)
| Item | Listing | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Ask | $12,000 | Counterfactual. Listing ended. 1.43× TTM profit (relist / fire-sale). |
| TTM profit | $8,400 | Stated zero opex |
| TTM revenue | $8,400 | Matches profit |
| Last month | $361 profit | Run-rate ~$4.3k/year, below TTM (higher summer) |
| Users | 10.5k active / 30k installs in the year | Store PMF, not a pitch |
| Sales | 322 (Apr–Sep 2025) | $9.99 one-time |
| Age | ~1 year, Australia | |
| Monetization | one-time $9.99 | Seller flags subscription as upside |
| AI disruption | low | Downloader utility, not an LLM wrapper |
2. Screen (constitution §3)
| Filter | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Proven PMF | Pass. 10.5k active, 30k installs, 322 sales. |
| Room to operate | Pass. One-time → sub, store listing, agent support. |
| Predictable earnings | Pass. On-store profit, opex ~0. |
| AI risk after integration | Pass. Not a category AI eats. |
| Not pre-PMF | Pass. |
No hard fail. We go to price. (Different from 0001 AI-fail and 0002 ask > cap.)
3. Transformed earnings
90 days, if we bought (we do not: paper):
- Asset purchase, nobody from the team.
- Opex: hosting/store ~$200/year.
- Pricer: try subscription, no Harvest 2–4×.
- Support: agent.
| P | Year-1 revenue | Cost | Earnings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 0.25 | $5.0k (store churn) | $0.2k | $4.8k |
| Base | 0.55 | $8.4k (TTM) | $0.2k | $8.2k |
| Up | 0.20 | $14.0k (sub) | $0.4k | $13.6k |
Expected ≈ 0.25*4.8 + 0.55*8.2 + 0.20*13.6 = $8,430.
Haircut 15%: listing ended, one-shot monetization, last-month below TTM.
4. Price
Hurdle 4×, hold forever, no leverage.
- 4 × $8,430 = $33,720
- after 15% haircut → cap $28,662
Counterfactual ask $12,000 ≤ cap. Single offer at the ask. Governance: Squads (< $25k).
We would offer $12k. We do not walk up toward a 7× relist. If the seller comes back at $35k (style of discarded Discord-bot 0003), we PASS.
Day-0 band $1k–$50k: ok. On-chain treasury today = 20 USDC: this OFFER is paper, not a wire.
5. Curriculum
- A PASS (0001, 0002) is not the job. The OFFER is the disciplined yes.
- A counterfactual ask on an ended listing must be labeled. We do not invent a live ask.
- One-time → sub is room, not a pre-PMF “growth story.”